Key Data and Events
There are several data releases that will make this week a very interesting one, such as the rate decision in Canada, Australian jobs report, and the speech in Madrid by New York Fed Presidential Nominee John Williams.
John Williams currently serves as president of Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and of course is a member of the FOMC. He has been nominated as the President of the New York Fed, which will automatically make him the number two after the Fed Chair.
John Williams Speech
John Williams said he expects U.S. inflation to continue to rise to the goal of 2% for 2018 and for that continue for the next couple of years thereafter. The case for more rate hikes this year is still strong, and in the long term, this is hawkish for the USD.
Monday 16th April: Pound Keeps Climbing
The British Pound performed excellent yesterday, with the BOE rate hike expectations the major catalyst for its move. The clarity in Brexit plans also contributed to its positive performance yesterday.
GBP/USD increased from 1.4297 to a reach a high of 1.4345, GBP/JPY also went up to attain a one day high of 153.57, EUR/GBP meanwhile fell from 0.8643 to end the day at 0.8628, and GBP/CAD went up to 1.8020.
The Kiwi meanwhile ended the day as the worst performing currency even though it managed to recover some loses late on.
NZD/USD was trading at 0.7336 before bouncing to 0.7363, NZD/JPY meanwhile went up to 78.94, EUR/NZD slid back to 1.6787 by the end of the day, and AUD/NZD also retreated to 1.0550.
Forex events of the week
Chinese GDP: Tuesday, 2:00.
The second largest economy in the world will publish the final GDP of the first quarter of 2018, with traders suspecting the data might be inaccurate. The annualized growth for the fourth quarter of 2017 stood at 6.8%, with the same figure expected for Q1 2018.
UK jobs report: Tuesday, 8:30.
The last job report in this region was mixed. The wages went up by 2.8% y/y for January, with the Claimant Count Change rising by 9,200, worse than analysts and traders expected. The unemployment rate stood at 4.3% in January, with the same figure expected for February. For wages, an increase of 3% is expected.
US housing data: Tuesday, 12:30.
For February, building permits in the State stood at an annualized rate of 1.3 million with housing starts lagging behind at 1.24 million. The building permits are expected to increase by 1.33 million while housing starts are expected to go even higher.
John Williams talks Tuesday, 13:15.
Even though other Fed officials would speak at an event in Madrid, his talk is the most important of all.
UK inflation: Wednesday, 8:30.
Annualized inflation level in the UK dropped to 2.75 in February, with the same level expected for March.
Canadian rate decision: Wednesday, 14:00.
The country might experience higher growth without necessarily triggering inflation according to Bank of Canada’s Stephen Poloz. Interest rates are expected to remain unchanged at 1.25% during this April meeting.
Australian jobs: Thursday, 1:30.
The last event of the week will happen in Australia, with the release of their job data. An increase of 17.5K was experienced in February, with the unemployment rate standing at 5.6%. The governor of RBA, Phillip Lowe revealed that interest rates wouldn’t be changed anytime soon, though changes in the labor market will have an impact. For March, expectations are a bit higher, with a job increase of 20.3K expected while the unemployment rate is expected to drop to 5.5%.