Forex Weekly Outlook: U.S Core CPI Expected to Rise By 0.2%

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Core CPI to Increase While Headline Prices Expected to Remain Stagnant

The NFP released last week showed that the U.S gained just 103k jobs last month, a figure that was below expectation. The greenback, however, continued its recovery against most of its pairs, regaining some grounds. This week presents some exciting events as the U.S inflation report will be released.

Monday: Risk Appetite, Higher Commodities Boost AUD, and NZD

AUD and NZD

The trade war between China and the U.S has eased over the past few days and this has boosted sentiment for China’s major trade partners like Australia and New Zealand and their respective currencies.

 

Forex outlook for the week

US PPI: Tuesday, 12:30.

The Headline PPI is expected to go up by 0.1% m/m for last month, which is below the figure recorded for February. Core PPU, on the other hand, is expected to remain unchanged at 0.2%

Mario Draghi talks Wednesday, 11:00.

The President of the ECB will make a speech in front of a student conference in Frankfurt and he will also answer some questions thrown at him. The recent slowdown in economies in the region will likely be discussed, while traders will also watch for any comments on inflation.

US inflation: Wednesday, 12:30.

The U.S economy has been growing but inflation is still left behind. The country has been recording excellent job gains and decent GDP growth but inflation has remained uncharacteristically low. An increase of 0.2% is expected for Core CPI while the headline prices are expected to remain the same for March.

FOMC Meeting Minutes: Wednesday, 18:00.

The minutes of the Fed meeting headed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell will be released on Wednesday. Even though interest rates were raised and the outlook for both 2019 and 2020 were upgraded, nothing was done to that of 2018. The minutes, when released, might shed a light on that.

ECB Meeting Minutes: Thursday, 11:30.

The minutes from the ECB meeting last month will be released on Thursday. The publication, however, doesn’t bring any excitement to traders considering it has been over a month since the meeting.

JOLTS Job Openings: Friday, 14:00.

This is another report for the job markets and is a report that is watched closely by the Fed. It is a very important data, with the annualized level reaching 6.31 million in January. For February though, it is expected to drop to 6.22 million.

 

 

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