Choppy Week for USD, Yen Gains

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Trading-Outlook-July-29---3USD

Last week was a rough one for the USD pairs; trading higher at the beginning of the week due to the CB consumer confidence index which rose from 120.7 to 122.9 in August, a figure that hasn’t been achieved since 2000. The early rise was sustained after the ADP report indicated that the NFP will be quite strong. The preliminary estimate for the second quarter GDP growth was reviewed and upgraded from +2.6% quarter-on-quarter annualized to +3.0%,

The Greenback tanked later, especially after a very disappointing NFP (156k against the 180k that was expected).

The Euro

The Euro’s price action wasn’t good last week either with the opposing currencies holding the upper hand over the euro pairs, most likely because traders are hunkering down for the upcoming ECB statement.

The Sterling

The Sterling had a good run the week prior. The pound pairs made most of their gains between Tuesday’s U.S. session and Thursday’s Asian session.

Yen Crosses

The Yen gained against its major counterparts this past week and on into this one, and the ForexSignal.com Team sent the first signal for September to sell the EUR/JPY.

The timing was perfect; while the USD pairs had a lack of liquidity due to Labor Day observed in the USA, the yen and Euro crosses were moving with momentum and we sent a signal to sell the EUR/JPY at 130.19.

EUR/JPY sell trade from September 4-5, it reached a maximum of 76 pips.
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Major Events for September 6-8th 2017.

  • Australian GDP: Wednesday, 1:30. After the Australian rate decision comes to the Australian GDP. It is eyed as a possible proxy for the Chinese growth. In the first quarter of 2017, the economy grew by 0.3% and analysts are expecting a growth rate of 0.9% in the second quarter.
    US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Wednesday, 14:00. This data is usually published before the NFP and served as an indicator of how the NFP will be. It will be released six days later though this time around. Its value for July stood at 53.9 and it is expected that a rise to 55.5 points will be witnessed for August
  • Canadian rate decision: Wednesday, 14:00. The rates were increased back in July by the bank of Canada with the CAD jumping before and after the decision. This time around, no increase is expected though but it is expected that a statement will follow that will hint about possible hike in November
  • ECB rate decision: Thursday, 11:45, press conference at 12:30. There are lots of questions surrounding this release, with investors wondering if the ECB will announce QE tapering? And what will the scale be?
  • Canadian jobs report Friday, 12:30. The Canadian job report is following the US job report that was published earlier. The economy recorded a gain of 10.9K jobs in July. Even though it is ok, it wasn’t impressive. Their unemployment rate stood at 6.3%. There is expectation that the job will rise by 15k in August while the unemployment rate will remain at 6.3%
 

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