The US-China Trade Negotiations Continue To Paralyze The Currency Market

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currency-puzzle

US-China Negotiations Affect The Global Economy

The currency market has paralyzed over the past few months, primarily due to the ongoing trade war and talks between the two leading economies in the world, the United States, and China.

Currency Market Not At Its Best

The past few months haven’t been fair to the Forex market. The pattern showcased by the market since October last year is a change in the status quo as an equal and opposite reversal meets every sustained price movement. Thus, the market hasn’t recorded any substantial growth over the past eight months or so.

Against the US Dollar, the Euro was trading between 1.1500 and 1.1200 within October and March. The pair has slightly moved to trade between 1.1200 and 1.1400 since then. There is a slight negative bias against the Euro. However, the little movement can hardly be referred to as a direction.

The trend has been the same for the GBP/USD pair. The Sterling was trading down towards the end of last year but went higher at the start of the year. However, the movement has been between 1.3300 and 1.2600. The GBP was trading at 1.3015, and by April 8, 2019, it was trading at 1.3065. The price has dropped and now stands at 1.2600.

The yen has experienced a higher level of mobility, but it has also shown a level of paralysis. For example, the USD/JPY pair has been trading between 114.00 and 107.00. The yen was trading at 111.53 on April 8, 2019, which is similar to its trading price of 111.88 on October 26, 2018. It has now dropped to 108.56

The other significant pairs such as the USD/CHF, AUD/USD, and the NZD/USD are also stuck in the same loop as the others. The major exception, in this case, is the USD/CAD, which was trading at 1.3086 but went up to 1.3311 on April 8, 2019. The USD/CAD has continued gaining strength and now stands at 1.3418.

Currency Market Still Rife With Events Despite Price Disappointments

Although the currency market has been somewhat stagnant in terms of price movement, there have been some interest events over the past few months. The GDP growth rate of the US has declined over the previous quarter, and all eyes are on the Fed decision on Wednesday, June 19, 2019, as Powell tries to defend the current state of the economy.

In Europe, things are much messier. France experienced a nationwide riot, Italy plunged into its third recession within a decade, and Germany barely averted a recession. In Britain, the Brexit situation continues to bring an air of uncertainty to the economy. Theresa May has resigned from her post as the PM, and the UK is yet to make a plan for leaving the EU or staying.

China’s industrial and exports output declined as the effects of the trade war with the United States continues to affect its economic growth. The US-China trade talks continue, and from all indications, we believe the currency market will continue in its current state of paralysis until there is a resolution.

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