France – Election Day Round 1. Euro Up or Down?

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france-euroFrance – Election Day

Sunday April 23 is D-Day for France as French voters cast their ballots in the presidential elections. Regardless of the outcome, the results are bound to have a significant impact on the Euro. A variety of very uncertain scenarios could unfold as the extremely tight 4-way race ends.

Currently four candidates remain: Emmanuel Macron, Marine Le Pen, Jean-Luc Mélenchon and François Fillon and all are oh so closely matched which translates to a non-majority for any candidate. If neither candidate wins a majority, there will be a second-round run-off election between the top two candidates on May 7th. As more voters grow tired and wary of the fact that their vote will likely only help to decide who goes through to the run-off, we can expect to see high absenteeism making matters even more as this can skew the results even more.

Euro – Surge Ahead or USD Parity?

The Euro participants will be watching like a Hawk as to the eventual combination of results assessing the best and worst case scenario for the single currency.

Market-friendly and best-case scenario Macron and Fillon could help bolster the Euro significantly and Le Pen / Mélenchon will push it closer and quickly to parity to the USD. The markets will be scrambling at that stage and it could be a financial bloodbath.

My expectation is that if the win goes to Macron or Fillon; the Euro surges. If the victory goes to Le Pen or Mélenchon, then parity here we come.

Either way, Forex traders can expect to see volatility like we haven’t seen since Donald Trump won the Presidency last November. As always – will be watching and alert looking for Trade Opportunities to keep you informed.


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