Non-Farm Payroll Dominates Amidst July 4th Holiday
The Forex market ended the second quarter of the year in a mixed zone with the Greenback ending the quarter on a strong note. The third quarter will start with the US Independence Day holiday and has other activities like the Non-Farm Payroll report, the FOMC Minutes, and more.
July Opens and the USD Reigns Supreme
On June 27th we sent a signal to buy the USDJPY at 110.39. We achieved two out of three targets before the weekend and our third target was achieved on Sunday July 1st. We were able to close the trade with profit for our Trade Copier clients all over the world.
The USD was the leading currency yesterday. There were no direct catalysts for its growth but some analysts attributed it to relief buying and speculation that the ongoing trade wars will affect U.S. trade partners negatively more than the U.S. itself
NZD/USD dipped to 0.6722, AUD/USD also dropped to 0.7354, and EUR/USD dropped to trade at 1.1629
The Yen which is considered a safe-haven got a boost yesterday, most likely due to the risk-off vibes in Europe and making it the second-best performing currency of the day.
EUR/JPY dipped to trade at 128.81, GBP/JPY also went down to end the day at 145.51, and CHF/JPY dropped to 111.45
Forex Events of the Week
Australian rate decision: Tuesday, 4:30.
The interest rate in this country hasn’t been changed in two years by the Reserve Bank of Australia, and it is unlikely to change this time. The Cash Rate is expected to stay at the current 1.50%.
ADP Non-Farm Payrolls: Thursday, 12:15.
The job report for the private sector was postponed to Thursday due to the holiday on Wednesday. For the month of May, the ADP report dropped to 178K but it is expected to reach 190K for June. Any changes from the expected value wouldn’t only affect the US Dollars but also shape expectations for the Non-Farm Payrolls reports which will be released on Friday.
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Thursday, 14:00.
This report went up by 58.6 points in May but it is expected to slide to 58.3 points for May.
FOMC Meeting Minutes: Thursday, 18:00.
The U.S Fed will release the minutes from its June decision which it announced a hawkish hike in interest rates. The Fed was also bullish in its economic outlook and noted two further interest rates hikes will occur before the end of the year.
US Non-Farm Payrolls: Friday, 12:30.
The Non-Farm Payroll is perhaps the biggest economic indicator in the forex market and will be released on the first Friday of the month. The job report for May which was 223K was better than expected. The monthly wages rose by 0.3% while the salaries year on year were up by 2.7%. For the month of June, job increase is set to rise by 200K, while the m/m wage rise is expected to stand at 0.3%. The US Dollars would record massive gains if the wage growth should grow by 3% year on year while a drop below 2.5% would hurt it.
Canadian jobs report Friday, 12:30.
The last report for the week is the Canadian job report. The country suffered two consecutive months of falls in jobs. A drop by 7.5K was reported in May but the unemployment rate is expected to still remain at 5.8%.